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中国精品科技期刊2020
赵杰斌,黄穗东,孙远明,等. 基于数据挖掘的江门市蔬菜食品安全风险分析与预测[J]. 食品工业科技,2023,44(20):281−288. doi: 10.13386/j.issn1002-0306.2022120006.
引用本文: 赵杰斌,黄穗东,孙远明,等. 基于数据挖掘的江门市蔬菜食品安全风险分析与预测[J]. 食品工业科技,2023,44(20):281−288. doi: 10.13386/j.issn1002-0306.2022120006.
ZHAO Jiebin, HUANG Suidong, SUN Yuanming, et al. Safety Risk Analysis and Prediction of Vegetable in Jiangmen City Based on Data Mining[J]. Science and Technology of Food Industry, 2023, 44(20): 281−288. (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13386/j.issn1002-0306.2022120006.
Citation: ZHAO Jiebin, HUANG Suidong, SUN Yuanming, et al. Safety Risk Analysis and Prediction of Vegetable in Jiangmen City Based on Data Mining[J]. Science and Technology of Food Industry, 2023, 44(20): 281−288. (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13386/j.issn1002-0306.2022120006.

基于数据挖掘的江门市蔬菜食品安全风险分析与预测

Safety Risk Analysis and Prediction of Vegetable in Jiangmen City Based on Data Mining

  • 摘要: 目的:对江门市2016~2020年蔬菜食品安全抽检数据进行分析,建立基于数据挖掘的食品风险预测模型。方法:以江门市辖区内农贸市场、批发市场、商场超市、餐饮服务单位等单位10个种类的蔬菜样本共1928份,分析其不合格样本和不合格项目的分布情况,并基于监测指标和样本信息,选取蔬菜种类、蔬菜品种、监测场所等7个属性为输入,结论属性为输出,利用反向传播(back-propagation,BP)神经网络构建蔬菜食品安全风险分析与预测模型。结果:风险分析显示,江门市芽菜类蔬菜、叶菜类蔬菜、根茎类和薯类蔬菜合格率分别为81.7%、95.9%、96.3%,均低于总体合格率96.6%;4-氯苯氧乙酸钠、毒死蜱和铅元素超标问题突出,不合格批次占比达71.2%。经数据处理、最优参数筛选、数据训练和验证、模型优化等步骤构建出3层的BP神经网络模型,该模型总体精度为96.3%,灵敏度为96.8%,特异性为83.9%。结论:该模型具有良好的预测准确度和性能,可为食品安全监管工作提供技术参考。建议可利用快检技术的大数据量优势与BP神经网络相结合,构建多算法组合模型,并加强样品信息登记的规范性,以构建出准确度更高,应用更广的风险分析与预测模型。

     

    Abstract: Objective: To establish a safety risk prediction model based on the analysis of food safety sampling data of vegetable in Jiangmen City from 2016 to 2020 and data mining. Methods: A total of 1945 samples of 10 kinds of vegetables from farmers' markets, wholesale markets, supermarkets and catering in Jiangmen City were collected and used to analyze the distribution of unqualified samples and unqualified items. Based on monitoring index and sample information, seven attributes including vegetable type, vegetable variety and monitoring place were selected as input and conclusion attribute was used as output. A risk analysis and prediction model of vegetable safety was established by back propagation (BP) neural network analysis. Results: The risk analysis showed that the qualified rates of sproutie vegetables, leafy vegetables, root vegetables and potato vegetables were 81.7%, 95.9% and 96.3%, respectively, lower than the averaged level. The excessive problems of sodium 4-chlorphenoxyacetate, chlorpyripyrix and lead were the main safety problems, 71.2% of the unqualified samples. A three-layer BP neural network model was constructed by data processing, optimal parameter screening and data training and validation, with an accuracy of 96.3%, a sensitivity of 96.8% and a specificity of 83.9%. Conclusion: The proposed model has good prediction performance, which can provide technical reference for food safety supervision. It is suggested that the multi-algorithm combination model can be built with the large data volume of rapid detection technology and BP neural network. Based on the the standardization of sample information registration, it is able to establish a risk analysis and prediction model with improved accuracy and broader application.

     

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