Abstract: The quality changes of rose low-nitrate semi-dry fermented sausage (M) and traditional semi-dry fermented sausage (P) during storage at 3 temperatures (4, 25, 35 °C) were evaluated in this study. Then, the kinetic and the Arrhenius equation were used to establish the prediction models for the shelf life of fermented sausages. Studies had shown that temperature had a greater impact on the redness value and texture characteristics of the two groups of sausages. During storage, the acid value, total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N) value and total viable count (TVC) at each storage temperature increased with the storage time, and the higher temperature, the more obvious the change trend. The kinetic model was established with TVB-N value and TVC as the key factors, and combined with the Arrhenius equation, the shelf life prediction models of two fermented sausages were constructed. In the TVB-N and TVC prediction models of fermented sausage P, the activation energy E_a was 52.37 kJ/mol and 43.39 kJ/mol, respectively, and the pre-explicit factor K₀ was 69859734.72 and 8800494.34, respectively. In the TVB-N and TVC prediction models of fermented sausage M, the activation energy E_a was 46.46 kJ/mol and 43.53 kJ/mol, respectively, and the pre-exponential factor K₀ was 5373553.61 and 8016399.99, respectively. 4 ℃ and 30 ℃ were selected as the verification temperature to test the reliability of the shelf life prediction model. The results showed that the relative error between the theoretical and measured shelf life of the two fermented intestines was within 11.18%, and could be used for shelf life prediction in the temperature range of 4 to 35 ℃. In addition, the quality of fermented sausage M was better than that of fermented sausage P, and had a longer shelf life.