Establishment of Shelf-life Prediction Models for Vacuum-packed Shizitou

In order to study the shelf-life prediction model of vacuum-packed Shizitou(a traditional Chinese-style meatball),the changes of the total viable counts in Shizitou,stored at different temperatures were investigated. The linear model,modified Gompertz model,Logistic model and Baranyi model were used to establish the primary growth models,the square root equation was used as a secondary model. An optimal model was chosen for the establishment of shelf life prediction model based on the evaluation parameters. The results indicated that the modified Gompertz model worked best to fit the experimental data,and the effect of temperature on the maximum growth rate and lag phase could be well described with the square root model. The predicted shelf-life of Shizitou at 4,10,15,20,25℃ were 80.79,45.22,10.96,4.96,4.01 d,respectively. The relative deviation between the measured value and the predicted value were within 10%,indicating that the shelf life of Shizitou stored at 4~25℃ could be satisfactorily predicted with the modified Gompertz model.