Probability Assessment of Dietary Exposure Risk to Aluminum in Flour Foods by Monte Carlo Simulation

Based on the monitoring results of aluminum residues in sale flour foods,a nonparametric probability assessment model was established using Crystal Ball software,and then the level of residents’ aluminum dietary exposure was preliminarily evaluated. The results showed that the average and maximum content of aluminum residues in flour foods was 15.5 mg/kg and 1437.7 mg/kg,and the over standard rate was 8.5%. The contents of aluminum residues varied significantly among different types of flour foods(p<0.05),while the fried flour foods had the highest content of aluminum residues(22.7 mg/kg). The daily exposure to aluminum from flour foods in different age groups,adolescent(6~17 years old),youth(18~44 years old),middle-aged(45~59 years old),elderly(more than 60 years old)was male 103.89/female 116.47,male 66.36/female 79.36,male 68.23/female 72.41,male 73.80/female 78.89 μg/(kg·d)at the 99th percentile,which was lower than that of ADI(Acceptable daily intake)285.7 μg/(kg·d). The maximum hazard quotient(HQ)of aluminum dietary exposure from flour foods was 0.41 and less than 1.The risk of aluminum dietary exposure from flour foods was acceptable,and there was a low possibility of health risks caused by daily exposure to aluminum from flour foods.