Establishment and evaluation of predictive model for the shelf life of chilled yellow broiler

In order to establish a predictive model for the shelf- life of chilled yellow broiler,samples were packed in trays and stored at-1,4,10,15,and 20 ℃,respectively,and their aerobic plate count were determined.Meanwhile,chilled yellow broiler was analyzed for total volatile basic nitrogen during storage at 4 ℃. Results showed that the average number of total viable counts was 5.67 lg( CFU / g) at the end of the shelf life.The primary models,modified Gompertz,Baranyi and modified Logistic were applied to describe the change of total bacterial counts with time,and their secondary models,square root equations,were used to describe the change of parameters from primary models with time.The modified Gompertz model was evaluated as the best goodness of fit by comparing the model parameters,regression coefficient( R²),bias factor( B_f),accuracy factor( A_f) and residual sum of squares( RSS) of the secondary models. On the basis of modified Gompertz,the relative error between predicted value obtained from total bacterial count growth prediction model and its observed shelf life was less than 10%.Which indicated the predictive model was reliable for the shelf- life of chilled yellow broiler meat stored at temperature ranging from-1 to 20 ℃.